All articles
arxiv arXiv cs.AI · 9d ago

Bayesian Audits Reveal Inconsistent AI Evaluation Timelines

Public AI evaluation archives show that a single terminal result can arise from two distinct pre-terminal histories, with estimated times to reach 95% of performance ceilings at 23.03 or 75.13. A candidate selection-aware frontier model fails synthetic recovery and uncertainty calibration, and is rejected by fixed audit gates. An archive-and-adjudication protocol verifies timing boundaries and falsifies unsupported frontier claims.

media Latent Space · 9d ago

Satya Nadella on Loopcraft and Frontier Ecosystems

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella introduces 'Loopcraft' as a new theory of the firm, emphasizing that the real opportunity in AI lies not in selecting the best model, but in building learning loops that compound human and token capital. He asserts that the priority must be creating frontier ecosystems where every organization can own and grow its institutional knowledge, enabling broad value flow across industries and countries.

arxiv arXiv cs.LG · 9d ago

Adaptive Functional Gradient Descent with Convergence Guarantees

We propose a new functional gradient descent algorithm that adapts its representation during optimization. The method achieves convergence to a stationary point under smooth losses and to a global minimizer under smoothness and a Polyak-Lojasiewicz condition, despite using finite-dimensional approximations. It outperforms both fixed-approximation FGD and neural network baselines in regression, PDE solving, and computer vision tasks.

arxiv arXiv cs.LG · 9d ago

Unified Causal-Origin Taxonomy of Distributional Shifts in RL

This paper proposes a unified causal-origin taxonomy for distributional shifts in reinforcement learning, linking ID/OOD generalization to non-stationary settings. It decomposes the agent-environment interaction using a POMDP framework, identifying internal, agent-driven, and external, environment-driven shifts, with explicit, implicit, and hybrid types defined by the shifted-time boundary. The work introduces an evaluation framework to measure shift impact through performance degradation and recovery metrics, enabling systematic analysis of RL robustness.