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arxiv arXiv cs.AI · 10d ago

MA-SBI: Calibration-Free SBI via Side-Channel Guidance

MA-SBI introduces a calibration-free simulation-based inference framework that uses side-channel text, like regime labels or instructions, to correct for simulator misspecification. It employs a learned corrector to apply observation-space shifts before posterior inference, without needing ground-truth parameter pairs or retraining. On hide-the-calibration benchmarks, MA-SBI matches the oracle posterior with text alone, outperforming RoPE under limited data, and shows robustness on real-world epidemiological and cognitive-science datasets.

arxiv arXiv cs.AI · 10d ago

CrossMaps: Confidence-Aware Semantic Mapping for Rover Navigation

CrossMaps is a real-time, confidence-aware semantic mapping pipeline that uses RGB-D data to create language-queryable maps. It integrates multi-scale CLIP embeddings with a dual-memory architecture—Short-Term and Long-Term Memory—to aggregate visual observations and promote coherent, confident cells as persistent semantic landmarks. The system enables natural language queries to guide rover navigation via semantic heatmaps.

arxiv arXiv cs.AI · 10d ago

Causal Model of Theory of Mind in AI Conflict

This paper proposes a structural causal model using a directed acyclic graph to define when Theory of Mind engagement is causally warranted in human-machine conflict. The model identifies four exogenous conditions, five mediators, and three causal pathways for ToM activation, with epistemic accuracy as the primary outcome. It offers a resource-rational framework for AI social reasoning, validated through simulation and human-machine studies.

arxiv arXiv cs.AI · 10d ago

Bayesian Audits Reveal Inconsistent AI Evaluation Timelines

Public AI evaluation archives show that a single terminal result can arise from two distinct pre-terminal histories, with estimated times to reach 95% of performance ceilings at 23.03 or 75.13. A candidate selection-aware frontier model fails synthetic recovery and uncertainty calibration, and is rejected by fixed audit gates. An archive-and-adjudication protocol verifies timing boundaries and falsifies unsupported frontier claims.