Natural Ungrokking: Asymmetric Control of Which Rules Survive Pretraining
A study identifies 'natural ungrokking,' a phenomenon where small language models lose learned grammatical rules midway through pretraining despite the evidence remaining in the data. Researchers observed that a model learning pronoun-gender agreement with Sue collapsed from 0.94 accuracy to near zero by step 3,500 without any corresponding spike in the loss curve. The survival of these rules is determined by support frequency within the training stream, while the data-to-parameter ratio only modulates the depth of the collapse. This emergence-then-collapse dynamic was replicated across multiple corpora, budgets, and seeds, and confirmed in public Pythia checkpoints where collapse depth correlated with model scale. The forgetting process acts as a displacement mechanism where a competing surface pattern out-competes the rule, causing the log-probability margin to cross zero within 100 steps of behavioral failure. Control over this fate is asymmetric; while injecting counter-evidence can destroy rules via a monotone dose-response, restoring support even at 450 times the sustaining level fails to recover them.