Uncertainty-Aware Longitudinal Forecasting of Alzheimer's Disease Progression Using Deep Learning
This study proposes a probabilistic framework for longitudinal modeling of Alzheimer's disease progression that combines ordinal diagnosis prediction, multi-horizon trajectory generation, and decomposed uncertainty estimation. The approach utilizes a Temporal Fusion Transformer encoder and an autoregressive Mixture Density Network to generate five-year probabilistic trajectories while quantifying both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.