Evidence-Informed LLM Beliefs for Continual Scientific Discovery
The article addresses the limitation of AutoDiscovery's use of static "Bayesian surprise" by introducing evidence-informed LLM beliefs, where priors are updated with evidence from previous hypotheses to compute non-stationary surprisal. The authors find that embedding-based retrieval-augmented generation over prior discoveries best anticipates eventual posteriors and identify 37.5% of static surprisals as spurious.