Grounded Scaling: Determinism as a Core Limit in Agentic AI
Agentic AI performance degrades exponentially in non-deterministic environments, with k-step success falling as δ^k when per-step determinism δ < 1. The paper introduces a framework linking environment determinism to task success, verifiability, and skill evolution, proposing a Supply Certainty Index and a five-level Determinism Maturity Model. It challenges prevailing views by identifying determinism as a binding constraint across compute, data, embodiment, and alignment.