Evaluation & benchmarks
arxiv arXiv cs.AI · 9d ago

MA-SBI: Calibration-Free SBI via Side-Channel Guidance

MA-SBI introduces a calibration-free simulation-based inference framework that uses side-channel text, like regime labels or instructions, to correct for simulator misspecification. It employs a learned corrector to apply observation-space shifts before posterior inference, without needing ground-truth parameter pairs or retraining. On hide-the-calibration benchmarks, MA-SBI matches the oracle posterior with text alone, outperforming RoPE under limited data, and shows robustness on real-world epidemiological and cognitive-science datasets.

arxiv arXiv cs.AI · 9d ago

Causal Model of Theory of Mind in AI Conflict

This paper proposes a structural causal model using a directed acyclic graph to define when Theory of Mind engagement is causally warranted in human-machine conflict. The model identifies four exogenous conditions, five mediators, and three causal pathways for ToM activation, with epistemic accuracy as the primary outcome. It offers a resource-rational framework for AI social reasoning, validated through simulation and human-machine studies.

arxiv arXiv cs.AI · 9d ago

Bayesian Audits Reveal Inconsistent AI Evaluation Timelines

Public AI evaluation archives show that a single terminal result can arise from two distinct pre-terminal histories, with estimated times to reach 95% of performance ceilings at 23.03 or 75.13. A candidate selection-aware frontier model fails synthetic recovery and uncertainty calibration, and is rejected by fixed audit gates. An archive-and-adjudication protocol verifies timing boundaries and falsifies unsupported frontier claims.

arxiv arXiv cs.LG · 9d ago

Adaptive Functional Gradient Descent with Convergence Guarantees

We propose a new functional gradient descent algorithm that adapts its representation during optimization. The method achieves convergence to a stationary point under smooth losses and to a global minimizer under smoothness and a Polyak-Lojasiewicz condition, despite using finite-dimensional approximations. It outperforms both fixed-approximation FGD and neural network baselines in regression, PDE solving, and computer vision tasks.

arxiv arXiv cs.LG · 9d ago

Unified Causal-Origin Taxonomy of Distributional Shifts in RL

This paper proposes a unified causal-origin taxonomy for distributional shifts in reinforcement learning, linking ID/OOD generalization to non-stationary settings. It decomposes the agent-environment interaction using a POMDP framework, identifying internal, agent-driven, and external, environment-driven shifts, with explicit, implicit, and hybrid types defined by the shifted-time boundary. The work introduces an evaluation framework to measure shift impact through performance degradation and recovery metrics, enabling systematic analysis of RL robustness.