Microsoft has released Aurora 1.5, a major update to its open Earth-system foundation model that adds 22 new weather variables, hourly temporal resolution, and probabilistic ensemble forecasting capabilities.
- The model expands from 4 to 26 total variables, covering surface, pressure-level, wind, temperature, humidity, precipitation, and radiation fields relevant to energy, agriculture, transport, and climate risk.
- Aurora 1.5 introduces ensemble forecasting to show the range and likelihood of possible outcomes, addressing sensitivity to initial conditions and model uncertainty.
- The update provides hourly temporal resolution for fine-grained operational guidance on events like precipitation onset or tropical cyclones.
- Released as open source on GitHub with checkpoints on Hugging Face, it connects Microsoft Research AI for Science's foundation with Microsoft Weather services for enterprise-grade use.
This release enables researchers and developers to evaluate and extend the model while providing organizations with the data infrastructure needed for responsible weather intelligence.