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arxiv arXiv cs.AI · 15d ago

Bayesian Audits Reveal Inconsistent AI Evaluation Timelines

Public AI evaluation archives show that a single terminal result can arise from two distinct pre-terminal histories, with estimated times to reach 95% of performance ceilings at 23.03 or 75.13. A candidate selection-aware frontier model fails synthetic recovery and uncertainty calibration, and is rejected by fixed audit gates. An archive-and-adjudication protocol verifies timing boundaries and falsifies unsupported frontier claims.

media Latent Space · 15d ago

Satya Nadella on Loopcraft and Frontier Ecosystems

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella introduces 'Loopcraft' as a new theory of the firm, emphasizing that the real opportunity in AI lies not in selecting the best model, but in building learning loops that compound human and token capital. He asserts that the priority must be creating frontier ecosystems where every organization can own and grow its institutional knowledge, enabling broad value flow across industries and countries.